Stock market overview for February 19, 2021: expectations moderately negative

Negative dynamics prevailed. The leaders of growth among the most liquid were (RTKM 107.84, 3.42%). The underdogs were (MTLR 69.84, -6.24%). USD/RUB was trading in the corridor 73.50-74.20.

The Bank of Russia plans to move to a neutral policy. In our opinion, the relevant statements should not be taken as a signal to raise the rate above 5% soon. Now deflationary factors no longer dominate the inflationary, and the US Federal Reserve also sees ahead of the cycle of raising rates, which usually accompanies a period of rapid growth of the economy. Inflation will help to "burn" part of the money supply issued during the acute phase of the crisis. We do not rule out a rate hike in Russia by one notch at the end of the year, if inflation rises above 4.5%.

Fosagro (PHOR 3,738, 1.08%) fourth quarter report. Consensus puts revenues at 262 billion rubles with EBITDA of 88 billion rubles and a profit of 35 billion rubles (270 rubles per share). Dividend payments accounted for 50-80% of profits. Previously, the company reported an increase in production in the reporting period by 5%, to 10.1 million tons. Much will depend on the demand for fertilizers this year. In some regions, this demand will increase against the backdrop of rising food prices and possible shortages. The target of 3760 rubles at the end of the year can be put on review at the end of the current quarter.

(NLMK 204.68, -1.29%), speculative sales, target: 195 rubles.

We expect a different dynamic. Moderately negative sentiment prevails in the stock and commodity markets. Usd/RUB forecast: range 73.50-74.50. Benchmark for the Moscow Exchange index: 3400-3450 points.